US Navy warns Haiti to prepare for Hurricane Emily

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Evidence mounts of
a UN massacre in Haiti
In the early morning hours of July 6, more than 350 UN troops stormed the seaside shantytown of Cite Soleil in a military operation with the stated purpose of halting violence in Haiti. The successful goal of the mission was to assassinate a 31 year-old man and his lieutenants that Haiti's rightwing media and reactionary business community had labeled a bandit and armed of supporter of ousted president Jean-Bertrand Aristide. July 12

Two images of the sixth storm — in Hurricane Alley — of the season 99L Invest

100L Invest — potentially — looks to be less than a week behind

US Navy NMOC of Norfolk, Virginia Tropical Support page posted the above image from it's weather satellite. Together with "Strike Probability" guidance on the US Navy site, the Coup Government of Haiti has issued a Tropical Storm Watch" while the Category 2 hurricane approaches the island.

After brushing the northeast region of Venezuela, Hurricane Emily has veered north of it's westerly direction. While the steering currents could push it away from Haiti and the Dominican Republic, Jamaica's strike probability is a lot higher for the time being.

The tracking forecast maps have Emily brushing Jamaica before storming through the Yucatan Peninsula on its way to the Gulf of Mexico as it poses a significant threat to the State of Texas.

Meanwhile, in Port au Prince, this morning, the UN occupation force (MINUSTAH) reported that hunting down pro-democracy militants - what UN General Ribero prefers to call "bandits" - is a higher priority than preparing for the inevitable natural disaster caused by the hurricane season: "Both the Transitional Government and MINUSTAH are under heavy pressure for prompt visible actions to solve and control the security environment, especially in the key areas of the capital. "

The Haiti Emergency Situation Report (No. 39) also claimed that an assessment team consisting of WFP, UNICEF, UNDP, MINUSTAH, ACF and the Haitian Department of Civil Protection "over flew" the coastal areas to assess potential damages of Hurricane Dennis.

This is a record year for Hurricanes, already Hurricane Emily became the fifth named storm of the season which is 14 days sooner than the previous historical record. The Navy satellite images are tracking the next brewing storm "99L Invest" currently in Hurricane Alley and does have the potential to consolidate and become another big concern for the Caribbean next week.

Hurricane Emily has been an unusual formation and for a time being there was some hope that, it too, wouldn't be able to consolidate the rising air currents to become what it is now. The most recent images - just coming in of this writing - show a distinct eye and increasing organization of the menacing storm. If it slows its forward progress it could easily strengthen into a Category 3 hurricane by tonight.

Latest official forecast below:

WTNT25 KNHC 141431

TCMAT5

HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005

1500Z THU JUL 14 2005

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS

ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM PUNTA SALINAS WESTWARD TO THE

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER. THE GOVERNMENT OF HAITI HAS

ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI

BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.

AT 11 AM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD HAS DISCONTINUED THE

TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF

VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES WESTWARD TO PUNTO FIJO...INCLUDING ISLA

MARGARITA AND THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS NORTH OF THE COAST AND WEST OF

CUMANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BONAIRE...CURACAO...AND

ARUBA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD

MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 64.0W AT 14/1500Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB

EYE DIAMETER 10 NM

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.

64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.

50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.

34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 40SW 90NW.

12 FT SEAS..175NE 90SE 60SW 125NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 64.0W AT 14/1500Z

AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 63.2W

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 13.3N 66.4W

MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

34 KT...100NE 90SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 14.5N 69.9W

MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.

34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.6N 73.3W

MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.

34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.0N 76.8W

MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.

34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 19.0N 83.5W

MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.

34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 21.0N 89.0W...INLAND

MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 22.5N 94.0W

MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 64.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z

FORECASTER FRANKLIN