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Stan drifts west of Haiti
September 28, 2005
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Regional Storms at
HaitiAction.net
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 September 28, 2005 - Yes. It's as bad as it looks. This Composite Sea Surface Temperature map shows that the projected path of this system will be slowly moving through the hottest region in the ocean for the next week. Unless the upper level shear can break apart this formation it's likely that 99L Invest will become Tropical Storm Stan within three days. The system's progress didn't increase overnight — as expected — but conditions are still favorable for a Hurricane to reach the Gulf of Mexico soon. In short, the longer Stan sits over the red, the stronger it gets. |
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Stan drifts west of Haiti: the tropical wave moves through rising heatOfficially known as "99L Invest" the weather system that will likely become the eighteenth named storm of the record 2005 hurricane season in the next couple of days as it ominously moves toward the battered Gulf States of the USA. As can be seen by the Composite Sea Surface Temperature — satellite image map above — the conditions are favorable for this system to gain strength as it moves through the Yucatan Channel into the Gulf of Mexico. The tropical wave could gain strength and become "Tropical Storm Stan" before moving into the Gulf. In the last couple of years extremely dangerous hurricanes - Hurricane Ivan and Hurricane Emily - have taken that similar route near the Yucatan Channel. After moving into The Gulf this system could find the warmest currents to become a hurricane which would threaten New Orleans with a storm surge for the third time this year. The National Hurricane Center of Miami Florida is warning interests in Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, Cuba and the rest of the northwest Caribbean to closely monitor the progress of this system over the next few days HaitiAction.net will have updates to this system as they affect this region. For the latest bulletins go to http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ first. Recent Bulletins: 1:05 PM - Haiti Time A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. IT IS NOW ALONG 80W/81W SOUTH OF 20N. A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 15N. THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATION POSITIONS HAVE JUMPED AROUND A BIT THIS MORNING REGARDING THIS SURFACE LOW CENTER. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 73W NEAR HAITI AND 81W APPROACHING THE COASTS OF EASTERN HONDURAS AND NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. THIS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING UNDER THE RIDGE WHICH IS BETWEEN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN FLORIDA COASTAL MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER AND THE NEXT BIG ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW. THE RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT ORIGINALLY SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN CANCELED. ANOTHER AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW MORNING IF NECESSARY. RESIDENTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. .oOo.oOo.oOo.oOo.oOo.oOo.oOo.oOo.oOo.oOo.oOo.oOo.oOo.oOo.oOo.oOo.oOo. A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEAS BETWEEN JAMAICA AND HONDURAS. THE ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. |
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THE 1009 MB LOW NEAR 14N74W HAS DISSIPATED. WAVE IS BENEATH E TO SE UPPER FLOW AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE E. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF 75.5W FROM 13N-16N AND SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF 77W FROM 12N-17N. |
