Stan could be a Tammy

Like the queen that can't get her makeup straight, and just won't let go of the bathroom to join the party, our predictions that the weather system that sashayed beneath Haiti a couple days ago - officially known as 99L Invest - would "come out" overnight as "Stan" are apparently premature.

It's more likely that this muddled, but catty, storm won't consolidate soon enough to take on a that tropical cyclone name. US Navy meteorologists still think that overall conditions are favorable for the system to finally lapse into a depression and storm into the Gulf, but it will probably be as a "Tammy."

Another macho formation - 90L Invest - in Hurricane Alley west of the Cape Verde Islands is more likely to steal the Stan name by morning and is forecast to track NNW. In that case 99L Invest would be left with Tammy when she comes out of the Caribbean closet.

Similarly, Hurricane Condoleezza stormed into Haiti to to bolster and pressure the coup government to hold the elections "as scheduled." Spinning out of control, the U.S. Secretary of State put out so much disinformation that one news agency wrote: ... Aristide's Lavalas Family party ... The party, which has broad support among Haiti's poor, has fielded Marc Bazin as its presidential candidate, one of 32 people seeking the office in the Nov. 20 balloting." Amazingly absurd ...

Marc Bazin, a very qualified asset to the "Bush 1" regime was backed with US-moneyed interests to take the 1990 presidential election of Haiti. The overwhelming majority of Haiti's citizens (remember, democracy is supposed to be "one person - one vote") are living below poverty and were intending on boycotting the 1990 "selections," just as they are now. At the last minute, they convinced Father Jean Betrand Aristide to run for the presidency and won with a stunning 67% of the vote against the field of presidential hopefuls. The Washington elite were caught with their pants down and had unwittingly presided over their first "fair" election.

The Bushies weren't amused by this outbreak of democracy in the first free republic in the Western Hemisphere and tried to pull off a coup before President Aristide was installed. Apparently their forecasters hadn't counted on the upper-level shear in Haiti's army that had visions of participating in democracy themselves and put down the premature coup. Even Jimmy Carter jumped into the game - as the Godfather of Democracy - and tried to convince Aristide to disappoint the overwhelming majority that had fairly elected their own choice for president.

Later, that year "Bush 1" found another asset in Col. Roul Cedras who was promoted to General by Aristide - who may have been overly optimistic in the viability of a national reconciliation. General Cedras marched to the orders and pulled off a clean coup d'État on September 30, 1991. Well almost, he was unable to find enough underlings to murder democratically-elected President Aristide who ended up in Venezuela (now the champion of real democracy in the Western Hemisphere). Cedras, however was quite effective at murdering thousands of pro-democracy activists during the next three years.

Presumably, to be much closer to MRS. Cedras, Godfather Jimmy Carter invited the murdering General - as a true Christian - to commandeer his Sunday school class. Even though it was rumored that President Carter took the opportunity to "escort" the General's wife around the "Plains." Jimmy stayed in the classroom - while lusting in his heart - as reported in that morally-chaste publication Playboy.

Which brings us back to today. The September 30th coup was commemorated every year in Haiti except today. "Former human-rights activist" and Haiti's current justice minister, Henri Dorlean, (unconstitutionally) decided that such demonstrations of political solidarity were not a basic right in this election season and has banned all demonstrations so that Haiti can force the "selections" on the population. The demonstrations for justice in Haiti will have happen elswhere around the world today.

Nevertheless, the spin of the Bushies continues as Marc Bazin was reported as being a member of Fanmi Lavalas. Qualifying as irony "Bush 2" has spent a lot of money trying to disparage Lavalas by consistently seeding the corporate media to use the terms "Lavalas bandits" and "Lavalas-armed gangs." (The truth is that most of the credible leadership of Fanmi Lavalas has repeatedly stated that they are dedicated to non-violent change and have openly condemned violent/armed resistance to the deadly coup government.)

"Bush 2" has once again pulled Bazin out of their mothball fleet of obsequious politicians to try and steal this democracy. There's a lot of money flying around the streets of Port au Prince these days to try and throw the peaceful Lavalas movement into disarray. The latest spin to come from Secretary Rice's visit, however, to consider Bazin as "Lavalas" is amazingly absurd.

The two credible Lavalas leaders who could get the support of the Lavalas base - Father Gerard Jean Juste and Prime Minister Yvon Neptune - languish in prison with trumped up charges.

The Provisional Electoral Council (CEP), meanwhile is making the most of the opportunity and demanding more money or they will delay the vote ...

And that is the weather forecast in Haiti.

Forecaster RAW

Excerpts from Official Alerts today:

ABNT20 KNHC 301529 TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS TPC/National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1130 am EDT Fri Sep 30 2005

For the north Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the large low pressure area located over the northwestern Caribbean sea has become better organized...

Even though upper-level winds have become less favorable. Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased and this system still has the potential to become a tropical depression during the next day or so as it moves slowly west-northwestward.

The reconnaissance flight scheduled for this afternoon has been canceled. However... Another Air Force Reserve aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system late tonight or Saturday...if Necessary. Whether or not this system become a tropical cyclone...

Locally heavy rainfall will likely affect Jamaica... The Cayman Islands... Portions of central and western Cuba... And the Yucatan peninsula over the next couple of days.

Interests in and around the northwestern Caribbean sea should closely monitor the progress of this disturbance.

The low pressure centered about 575 miles west-southwest of the southwesternmost Cape Verde islands has become much better defined.

Thunderstorm activity has increased and become better organized... And upper-level winds are favorable for a tropical depression to form later today or on saturday as the system moves slowly northwestward over open waters.

Forecaster Stewart

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